[M4IF Discuss] (no subject)

[Craig Birkmaier]

At 9:30 AM -0700 5/9/02, William J. Fulco wrote:
>Dave,
>
>That's kind of the take I've been assuming - that replacement for MPEG-2
>applications are a reasonable use for use fees (and I've speculated that
>that is what drove MPEG-LA to consider them in the first-place - preventing
>the loss of substantial revenue if large distributors switch from MPEG-2 in
>applications like DVD to MPEG-4 -  again, pure, bald-faced speculation on my
>part).

I doubt that this was a significant motivation. With the huge 
installed base of MPEG-2 DVD players any change in the format would 
be devastating. It will be MPEG-2 for years...
The main possible exception is HDTV. Here, it may be possible to get 
stores to stock titles in a second format. If MPEG-4 is used for 
coding HDTV then there might be an opportunity for it to get a foot 
in the door.
I have speculated that the MPEG-LA licensors decided to go for usage 
fees for streaming applications where money is already changing 
hands, especially choke points that are easy to control.
Hence:
Any VOD service would be easy picking
Any streaming media hosting service would be easy picking (e.g. 
Akamai, Digital island, etc)
Any subscription streaming media service would be easy picking (e.g. Real)
And any disc replication service would be easy picking (keep in mind 
that CD-ROM is a very strong candidate for MPEG-4 content, not just 
DVD).
We shall see what happens...
-- 
Regards
Craig Birkmaier
Pcube Labs