[M4IF Discuss] To those concerned about MPEG- 4 Licensing ...

[William J. Fulco]

Eddie,
I agree, however...
> I can only say yes, ..  but. As a CDN we wouldn't cheerfully
> invest in a low cost entry level licence with no guarantee
> that we don't get scalped later 'when the market will bear it'.

It's not about how cheery you are - it's about do you want to take the risk
now for the reward now. I'm sure you can wait-it-out - but you'll likely
find some of your competitors moving in. I've founded several companies -
and I seldom found these kinds of decisions - ones involving
core-uncertainty are never "cheerful" ones - but you make the choices the
best you can and live by the outcomes... and adapt (if you can) later on.
Profit today so you will be in business tomorrow.
>
> At present we know the prices for our streaming services (mostly free) and
> those prices are kept in check by competition.

Right -
1) You always have the choice of going to some other solution - even "free"
ones like WMA or Real.
2) If MPEG-4 wants to compete - they will need to compete...
I just suggesting what they need to do to compete - get in early cheap and
then decide what to do... the market for "new" technology seldom develops in
the face of established technology without 1) a compelling advantage and 2)
FEW dis-compelling (???) disadvantages. The MPEG-4 compelling advantage is
"interoperability" - however at the moment its dis-compelling disadvantage
is price (mostly the accounting nightmare for usage-fees, and in the some
applications the actual fees themselves).
> I find the idea of adopting a single standard, with no price
> competition and
> no guarantees of future pricing policy extremely scary.

Be afraid - be very afraid - if you dare :-) because some less fearful
competitor of yours might just take the chance and risk "getting burned"
later on - figuring if they're successful, they'll have enough clout or
money later on to 1) pay any increase in fees, 2) push-back on the "new"
license with the threat of 3) converting their players to use another
algorithm/system...
If they're not very successful - well then it's a moot point anyway... As I
see it, the only troubling case is an MPEG-4 adopter were only somewhat
successful - such that a rise in fees would put them under - because they
didn't have enough in the bank to "convert" or enough clout to negotiate -
but honestly, that's not usually the scenario in businesses over years of
being in business.
The point is - markets don't exist to give us "cheerful" decisions - they
exist to drive us - brutally so - to "the most efficient use of limited
resources in the face of uncertainty." All I'm saying is that currently, the
MPEG-LA thinking will kill MPEG-4's ubiquitous adoption (IMHO) - if they do
this - so be it... we have choices - if "they" want to make MPEG-4 stick
they have to decide soon and they've got to give "us" some reason to take
the blue-pill - Putting off this "we're going to make a bazillion-dollars
from new markets" greed in the form of a use-fee to later date-certain is
how they can do it.
That's all - it's up to them.
> Cheers
>
> Eddie

++Bill
William J. Fulco
wjf   NetworkXXIII.com
310-927-4263 Cell
---------------------------------
Logic: When you absolutely, positively
have to refute every fallacy in the room.